Rahm's Dilemma
Rahm Emanuel is right that independents will decide 2026 and 2028. But real partnership requires changing the rules, not just the rhetoric.
In two recent editorials for the Wall Street Journal (behind a paywall), Rahm Emanuel asserts that if the Democrats want to win Congress in 2026 and the White House in 2028, they need a new relationship with independent voters, now 45% of the electorate.
Here is a condensed version of his pitch.
Independents will decide the outcome of 2026 and 2028. They have the numbers and the data shows they have decided every presidential outcome since Bush.
Independents went with Trump in 2024 - in no small part because of the mess at the border and the cancellation of the 2024 Democratic Party primary - but have soured on him in response to multiple overeaches, failures, and cruelties.
Democrats have a “golden opportunity” to build a lasting partnership with independents if they, conduct a wide open raucous primary in 2028, don’t act like elitist jerks and say “we told you so about Trump,” and don’t force the Democratic Party’s special interest agenda down people’s throats.
And most importantly, don’t accept that “just because independents have become anti-Trump doesn’t make them Democrats.”
Wise words. And many independent activists, candidates, leaders and movement builders - (and don’t be fooled by press inattention, there is an independent movement, and it is growing) are watching Rahm closely to see whether his pro-independent posture gains any traction within Democratic Party circles.
But Rahm has a dilemma. The Democratic Party is not simply inattentive to independents. In many places and in different ways, they are hostile to independent voters.
Developing a meaningful, respectful partnership with independents will require the Democratic Party to change what they do, not just their talking points.
In Florida, it is Democratic Party leaders and activists who are at the forefront of preventing independent voters from participating in primary elections. They claim that open primaries would disenfranchise communities of color - despite the fact that over ONE MILLION independent voters of color are currently shut out of voting in Florida! That’s Orwellian.
In New York City, it is the Democratic Party, both its progressive and centrist factions, that insist that ranked choice voting has cured all ills, and if the 1.1 million independent voters want to have a voice, all they need to do is join a party! In fact, the NYC board of elections now sends texts to independent voters - paid for with your tax dollars - urging people to join a party if they want to vote. And not to be outdone, the Democratic legislature voted to ban the use of the word “independent” by any political party in the state, a move that MAGA is now seeking to replicate in Arizona in response to Hugh Lytel’s independent campaign for Governor.
When No Labels decided to explore running a unity ticket in 2024, it was the Democratic Party who harassed them, tried to kick them off the ballot, and demonized them in the media. I don’t even think the No Labels campaign was particularly thoughtful - but we live in a democracy and we need a free market for new ideas, including half-baked ideas. But Democratic leadership adopted a scorched earth policy towards them, as they have towards other independent outfits and candidacies going back 30 years.
In Washington DC - 70% of voters supported a local referendum in 2024 to allow independent voters to participate in municipal primaries, the only elections of consequence in DC. The measure passed overwhelmingly, but the DC City Council - all Democrats - has so far refused to implement the change because they don’t want to spend a few thousand dollars to print more ballots!
Rahm is laying out a roadmap. He is asking his fellow Democrats to stop putting their heads in the sand when it comes to the largest (and still rising) group of voters in the country. It is smart, thoughtful, but incomplete. What’s missing is the Democratic Party respecting independents when they work to change the rules of the political game, not just articulating talking points that will appeal to unaffiliated voters. In other words, stop punching us in the face every chance you get.
Independents want full voting rights. We want an end to gerrymandering and open primaries at all levels. We want leadership not partisanship. We want results, not the time tested partisan blame game. We want economic and educational innovation and growth. We have no problem with ideological differences - we see it as a strength, not an opportunity to pit people against each. We are open to partnering with Democrats. We are open to partnering with Republicans. But we are looking for a real partnership, based on respect, not marketing gimmicks. The party that does that has a chance to do much more than win.